The Daily Omnivore

The third-person effect hypothesis states that a person exposed to a persuasive communication in the mass media sees it as having a greater effect on others than on himself or herself. This is known as the perceptual hypothesis, but there is also a behavioral hypothesis predicting that perceiving others as more vulnerable increases support for restrictions on mass media. The third-person effect hypothesis also argues that people are compelled to take action after being exposed to a persuasive message but this action might not be due to the message itself but to the anticipation of the reaction of others. This action is unpredictable and it might be either in conformity with the message or counter to it.

Usually, the effects considered are about general media influence, but type of the message also affects the effect size. Messages implying undesirable consequences increase the effect size and messages with desirable consequences decrease or even reverse the effect, as in someone believing that they are more able than others to follow a promoted healthy diet. The third-person effect, specially its behavioral hypothesis, is important to issues of censorship. Censors seldom admit to having been adversely affected by the information they prohibit even if they have been exposed to it numerous times. Usually, they claim, it is the general public that needs to be protected, not them.

The Thomas theorem is a theory of sociology which was formulated in 1928 by W. I. Thomas (1863–1947): ‘If men define situations as real, they are real in their consequences.’ In other words, the interpretation of a situation causes the action. This interpretation is not objective. Actions are affected by subjective perceptions of situations. Whether there even is an objectively correct interpretation is not important for the purposes of helping guide individuals’ behavior. In 1923, Thomas stated more precisely that any definition of a situation will influence the present. Not only that, but—after a series of definitions in which an individual is involved—such a definition also ‘gradually [influences] a whole life-policy and the personality of the individual himself.’ Consequently, Thomas stressed societal problems such as intimacy, family, or education as fundamental to the role of the situation when detecting a social world ‘in which subjective impressions can be projected on to life and thereby become real to projectors.’

The 1973 oil crisis resulted in the so-called ‘toilet paper panic.’ The rumor of an expected shortage of toilet paper—resulting from a decline in the importation of oil—caused people to stockpile supplies of toilet paper and this caused a shortage. This shortage, seeming to validate the rumor, is also an example of a self-fulfilling prophecy. The Beauty Contest Theory, developed by John Maynard Keynes, justifies why the price of a share of stock does not necessarily develop according to rational expectations. He acts on the assumption that many investors make their decisions not according to their own computations of an asset’s worth but by predicting the conclusions of other market participants.