The Next 100 Years

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The Next 100 Years is a 2009 non-fiction book by American political scientist George Friedman. In the book, Friedman attempts to predict the major geopolitical events and trends of the 21st century. Friedman also speculates in the book on changes in technology and culture that may take place during this period. Friedman predicts a second American cold war with Russia in the 2010s. Friedman asserts that around 2015, the United States will become a close ally to some Eastern European countries, who will be dedicated to resisting Russian geopolitical threats during this period.

Friedman speculates in the book that the United States will probably become a close ally of Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Romania, who may form a military alliance during this period. According to Friedman’s prediction, around the year 2020, Russia will collapse, fragment, and disintegrate from the economic and political pressure of a second cold war.

Around this time, 2020, China will politically and culturally fragment as well, according to Friedman’s prediction. Friedman asserts that the rapid economic development of China since 1980 will cause internal pressures and inequalities in Chinese society that will result in regional fragmentation of the country, primarily to economic reasons. Friedman asserts that China will remain formally united, but the central government of China will gradually lose much of its real power.

In the 2020s, and 2030’s, three main powers will emerge in Eurasia, a new Turkish empire, a new Japanese empire, and a political and military alliance of Eastern European nations, referred to be Friedman as the ‘Polish Bloc.’ The United States will be allied with all three powers initially, but will gradually become an adversary of both the new Turkish empire and Japanese empire, who will grow in power in the 2020s and 2030s, and begin to threaten American interests. Friedman states that the new Japanese empire and new Turkish empire will probably form an alliance near the end of this period, in an effort to counter the overwhelming global power of the United States. Friedman also speculates that Germany and Mexico may possibly join this anti-United States coalition, however, he thinks it generally unlikely. Friedman states that in this conflict/confrontation the United States will be allied with the ‘Polish Bloc,’ and probably with China, India,a united Korea and Great Britain which enters it after fearing a Europe being dominated as France and Germany side with Turkey as well.

Friedman predicts a third world war between these two coalitions sometime around 2050. He asserts that the war will probably be started by a coordinated sneak attack by the Japanese and Turkish empires. He states that the war will be a form of limited war, and that it will be very different in its conduct than a total war, such as World War II of the 20th century. He predicts that the United States and its allies will win, and that the war will last two to three years. Freidman predicts after the war the United States will enjoy a properous decade in the 2060’s due to the fact that no nation could challenge it at this time and that a new alternative to energy from solar spaced based power systems would redefine the use of power and resources.

Friedman predicts that in the decades following World War Three, starting in the 2070’s, tensions between Mexico and the United States will rise. By this time, many parts of the United States, especially the South West, will become predominantly, ethnically, culturally and socially Mexican. The United States would start seeing immigration decades after the immigration policies of 2030, as a problem and Mexican immigrants behave differently starting in the 2030’s due to the proximity of their homeland. During this period, Mexican economic growth and population growth will be substantial, Friedman asserts. Mexico will be in a position to militarily and geopolitically challenge the United States for dominance of North America in the last quarter of the 21st century. A conflict which would likely continue into the 22nd Century.

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